Global consumer agentic AI spending to hit $3.35 trillion by 2030 as AI agents reshape buying decisions

Global consumer spending influenced by artificial intelligence (AI) agents is expected to reach $3.35 trillion by 2030, representing 3.8% of worldwide consumer expenditure, according to new research from PHD and WARC.

The figure marks a significant rise from the estimated $944 billion in agent-facilitated consumer spending this year, equivalent to 1.3% of global consumer spending, as AI agents increasingly influence how consumers discover, compare, and purchase products and services.

The research, titled From abundance to agents – how the delegation of choice is transforming marketing, highlights how AI agents are becoming critical decision-making tools in a marketplace where consumers face more information, content, and choices than they can effectively manage.

Rather than replacing consumers entirely, AI agents are expected to increasingly support purchasing decisions by filtering options, creating recommendations, handling repetitive tasks, and managing complex transactions.

The study forecasts that the top 10 global markets will account for 67.9% of worldwide consumer agentic AI spending by 2030, with the United States maintaining the largest share at 31.9%.

Telecommunications and utilities, financial services, and travel and transport are expected to become the leading sectors for agent-to-agent transactions as businesses increasingly integrate AI into customer journeys.

Rohan Tambyrajah, Worldwide Chief Strategy Officer, PHD, said: "This research brings category level empiricism to the open-ended industry conversation about the growth opportunity with consumer facing AI and Agentic AI. It underscores the need for brands to design for both meaning and machine logic, and through Four Modes Framework offers marketers practical guidance on how best to implement against a category-level business case."

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC, and author of the research, said: “This landmark study finds that agentic AI is already facilitating the path to purchase for many consumers, and will become deeply embedded over the coming years to influence $3.35trn in household expenditure by 2030.

“This is true not just in high-frequency categories such as travel, CPG, and utilities, but increasingly more so in sectors that have traditionally leveraged brand marketing as a core strategy. By mapping adoption across product sectors, markets and media, our research ensures practitioners are not caught flat-footed as they approach the new frontier.”

US, China and UK set to lead AI-driven consumer spending

The research analysed 10 major markets, including Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Mexico, South Korea, the UK and the US, using data from Acxiom and a weighted index methodology.

The analysis considered factors including decision complexity, transaction value, purchase frequency, data availability, media mix, and market regulation to estimate the future impact of AI-driven purchasing.

The leading markets for agentic AI consumer spending in 2030 are expected to be:

United States: The US will remain the largest market, accounting for $1.1 trillion, or 31.9% of global agentic AI spending. Growth will be driven by high consumer adoption of digital commerce and strong investment from brands developing AI-powered customer experiences.

China: China will rank second with $505.8 billion, representing 15.1% of global spending, supported by advanced digital ecosystems, platform integration, and consumer readiness for automated commerce.

United Kingdom: The UK is expected to capture 3.9% of global agentic AI spending, reaching $131.2 billion, supported by AI investment, technical expertise, and government-backed transformation initiatives.

AI agents to transform sectors differently

The report introduces PHD’s Four Modes Framework, which explores how businesses must adapt as AI agents become increasingly involved in consumer decisions.

The framework identifies four ways AI will influence purchasing: Agent-to-Agent, Agent-to-Consumer, Brand-to-Consumer, and Consumer-to-Consumer.

According to the research, agentic AI adoption will be strongest in industries where purchases are frequent, data-rich, measurable, and suitable for automation.

Telecoms, utilities, finance and travel lead agent-to-agent transactions

Telecoms and utilities are expected to experience the biggest impact, with AI-facilitated spending projected to grow 611.9%, from $57.6 billion in 2026 to $410.3 billion by 2030.

The sector is well suited to AI delegation because of information-heavy decisions, regular billing cycles, and comparison-based switching behaviour.

Financial services will see agent-assisted consumer spending increase 235.3% to $237.9 billion by 2030. While consumers may remain cautious about fully delegating financial decisions, AI agents will increasingly support research, comparisons, and recommendations.

Travel and transport will also experience significant growth, with agent-facilitated spending expected to rise 252.8% from $78.1 billion in 2026 to $275.6 billion in 2030 as AI agents manage travel searches, planning, and bookings.

Retail, food and media to see rapid AI adoption

In consumer-focused categories, AI agents will increasingly influence everyday purchases.

Soft drinks are expected to see agent-influenced spending grow 403.5%, rising from $60.5 billion in 2026 to $304.8 billion by 2030, driven by automated replenishment and price optimisation.

Food spending influenced by AI agents is forecast to increase 274.8%, from $78.1 billion in 2026 to $292.8 billion by 2030, due to frequent purchases and straightforward decision-making.

Media and publishing will remain one of the most digitally influenced sectors, with agentic AI spending projected to grow 401.8%, from $73.3 billion to $367.8 billion by 2030, supported by personalised recommendations, subscriptions, and content discovery.

Retail will also experience major change, with agent-facilitated spending expected to increase 218.7%, from $62.7 billion in 2026 to $199.9 billion by 2030.

The report warns that retailers must ensure they remain part of the customer journey rather than becoming only fulfilment providers behind AI-driven shopping decisions.

Brand differentiation remains critical in AI era

While AI agents will influence many consumer decisions, the research suggests that some categories will remain more dependent on human trust and emotional connection.

High-value purchases such as automobiles and electronics, as well as privacy-sensitive sectors including healthcare and pharmaceuticals, are expected to see slower AI delegation due to trust considerations.

Similarly, categories such as clothing, accessories, toiletries, and cosmetics will continue to rely heavily on human influence, creators, and word-of-mouth recommendations, although AI will still play a supporting role.

Brands must prepare for marketing to machines

The research concludes that brands will need new capabilities to succeed in an AI-led marketplace.

Key requirements include:

• Building strong, structured, machine-readable data foundations.
• Developing distinctive brand assets that stand out in AI-driven recommendations.
• Creating consistent brand stories that appeal to both consumers and AI interfaces.
• Ensuring products and services remain visible and relevant within automated decision-making systems.

As AI agents become more embedded in everyday purchasing, brands will need to optimise not only for human attention but also for machine understanding.