A prolonged crisis in the Gulf region could jeopardise almost $94 billion in global advertising growth over the next 18 months, according to new research from WARC, as rising energy costs and disruption to global trade threaten consumer spending and business confidence.
The latest WARC Media Global Ad Spend Forecast update found that the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could significantly weaken advertising investment worldwide, despite the global ad market remaining on course for strong growth this year.
WARC currently forecasts global advertising expenditure to rise by 11.5% in 2026 to reach $1.39 trillion, an upward revision from its March estimate of 10.6%, driven largely by a strong performance from online platforms during the first half of the year. However, escalating tensions in the Gulf could remove as much as $39.6 billion from global advertising growth in 2026 alone and a total of $93.7 billion by the end of 2027.
James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting at WARC and author of the report, said: “As the Gulf Crisis stretches into its fourth month, global markets are now in damage limitation mode as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz acts like a tax on consumers, lifting prices and squeezing real spending power.
“If the conflict drags on – or further intensifies – these risks shift toward stagflation, with sectors such as travel, automotive, and food acutely exposed to higher production costs and weaker demand. The net effect is a grueling squeeze on margins that could put as much as $94bn of anticipated ad market growth at risk over the coming 18 months.”
The report draws on advertising investment data from 100 markets worldwide and uses a proprietary forecasting model based on more than two million data points. It assesses three potential scenarios, ranging from current market conditions to more severe disruptions arising from the Gulf conflict.
Regional advertising markets face differing levels of risk
While the global outlook remains positive, WARC’s analysis suggests the impact of the Gulf crisis will vary significantly across regions.
Southeast Asia and Latin America are expected to record healthy advertising growth this year, but both regions are among the most vulnerable to worsening energy and trade disruptions. Southeast Asia is forecast to grow by 6.9% in 2026 under current conditions, although this could fall to 3.6% in a severe scenario.
China also faces heightened exposure due to its reliance on imported energy and international shipping. Advertising growth, currently projected at 7.9% this year, could slow to 5.3% if conditions deteriorate further.
The United States remains comparatively insulated from the crisis. WARC forecasts US advertising spend growth of 9.5% in 2026, supported by major events including the FIFA World Cup and midterm elections. Even in the most severe scenario, growth is expected to remain positive at 7.2%.
Latin America presents a more volatile picture. The region is projected to achieve the strongest advertising growth globally, at 12.8%, led by Brazil and Mexico. However, under a severe scenario, growth could slow dramatically to just 3.4%.
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain — are already experiencing weaker demand, particularly from international advertisers. In a severe scenario, advertising expenditure across the region would contract by 0.2%, compared with baseline growth expectations of 11.7%.
Across Europe, advertising spending is forecast to rise by 5.6% this year, although that could ease to 1.8% if conditions worsen. The UK, Germany and France are all expected to post growth, but France could slip into advertising recession under the most severe scenario.
Travel, automotive and food sectors most exposed
The report identifies travel, automotive and food as the sectors most vulnerable to prolonged disruption in the Gulf.
Travel and transport is already the only major category forecast to decline globally this year, with advertising expenditure expected to fall by 3.5% to $34.4 billion. Airlines operating in the Middle East have reportedly begun reassessing marketing budgets amid ongoing uncertainty.
The automotive sector is also under pressure from rising production costs and weaker consumer demand. In Germany, one of the world's largest automotive markets, advertising growth is forecast at just 1.9% this year, but could swing into contraction if the crisis intensifies.
Although food advertising remains relatively resilient, with global spending forecast to increase by 10.3% to $99.8 billion this year, WARC warns that supply chain pressures are likely to become more evident during the second half of 2026 and into 2027. Rising costs linked to fertilisers, grain, fuel and packaging are expected to weigh on both producers and consumers.
In the UK, food advertising growth is forecast at 4.9% under baseline conditions but could fall into negative territory in a severe scenario.
Digital advertising remains resilient as traditional media faces pressure
The report highlights a widening divide between performance-focused digital channels and traditional brand-building media.
Linear television is expected to face increasing challenges as advertisers prioritise channels that deliver measurable short-term returns. TV advertising is forecast to decline by 2.7% this year, with further losses expected in 2027. While the 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to provide some support, worsening economic conditions could offset much of that benefit.
Social media continues to demonstrate strong momentum, with spending forecast to grow by 20% this year. Even under a severe scenario, growth would remain robust at 17.9%. However, WARC notes that social platforms remain vulnerable because a large proportion of advertisers are small and medium-sized businesses, which are often more sensitive to economic downturns.
Paid search, including generative AI-driven search advertising, is expected to be the most resilient channel. Even under the most severe scenario modelled by WARC, search advertising would still grow by 11% in 2026.
According to the report, search, social media and retail media are expected to account for around two-thirds of global advertising expenditure, even in the event of significant market disruption.
By contrast, traditional channels such as television, publishing and cinema are forecast to absorb the bulk of any advertising cuts. Cinema advertising, in particular, is seen as highly vulnerable due to its dependence on discretionary consumer spending and cinema attendance, both of which tend to weaken when confidence falls and transport costs rise.
WARC expects global advertising growth to moderate to 8.2% in 2027, taking total expenditure to approximately $1.50 trillion. However, the organisation cautions that an extended Gulf crisis could erase a further $54.1 billion in projected growth, highlighting the significant economic risks posed by continued instability in the region.
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