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Thursday, 9 July 2020

Money Market Rates Remain Stressed As Local Banks Queue Up For Liquidity From The CBN

KEY INDICATORS                                                                                                                     
Indicator
Value
Commentary
Inflation
12.40%
As at May 2020. A 6bps increase from 12.34% recorded in April 2020
MPR
12.50%
As at the May 28, 2020 MPC Meeting, 100bps cut from 13.50%
External Reserves
$36.15bp
As at Jul 06, 2020. A c.0% change from $36.15bp on Jul 03, 2020
Brent Crude
$43.21pb
As at Jul 08, 2020. A c.0.26% increase from $43.10pb on Jul 07, 2020
The FGN bonds space continued its tales of halves, bullish at the head while the belly and the tail remained bearish. We saw yield compressed by an average of c.46bps at the short-end of the curve D/D as the 2023s remained the highest winner amongst these papers mostly bided at 4.10% levels with few offers available to match.  On the other hand of the curve, we noted more offers for 2049s and 2050s which started the day at 10.85% but weakened by 5pts to close the day offered at 10.90%. The mid- and long-end of the curve remained flat, with a slight uptick on the 2037s maturity expanding by c.3bps by the business close.

With the state of liquidity in the interbank market, we expect the trade volume to remain low with sustained bearishness at the tail of the curve.


Benchmark FGN Bonds
Description
Bid (%)
Offer (%)
Day Change (%)

14.50 15-Jul-21
3.84
2.44
(0.50)

16.39 27-Jan-22
3.94
2.47
(0.47)

12.75 27-Apr-23
4.99
3.81
(0.88)

14.20 14-Mar-24
5.53
4.34
0.00

13.53 23-Mar-25
6.52
5.07
0.00

12.50 22-Jan-26
7.56
6.98
0.00

16.29 17-Mar-27
8.51
8.04
0.00

13.98 23-Feb-28
8.54
7.94
0.00

14.55 26-Apr-29
8.89
8.16
0.00

12.15 18-Jul-34
10.22
10.00
0.00

12.40 18-Mar-36
10.18
10.00
0.00

16.2499 18-Apr-37
10.19
10.03
0.03

14.80 26-Apr-49
11.05
10.82
0.00





Treasury Bills
The Treasury bills space traded on a chaotic note as rates soared another c.50bps D/D on OMO bills continuously triggered by the tightness in the interbank market causing saw a wave of bears in the market scrambling to offload OMO bills to raise short-term funding. Most of the market offers were largely skewed to the short- and mid-dated bills, especially the September and January papers which were offered at 5.00% and 6.30% levels respectively. We saw traction, albeit in small sizes, for the latest OMO issue 8th June 2021 as the bill settled around mid 6% levels. Subsequently, yields expanded by an average of c.6bps across the OMO curve.

The NTB space wasn’t left out in today’s action with more retail offers on the short- and mid-dated papers at 1.10% and 1.70%. The benchmark NTB curve stayed flat D/D with little volumes changing hands.

We expect to see continuous bearishness in the Treasury bills in the interim as more banks seek to raise funding in light of the market tightness.

Benchmark OMO Bills
Description
Bid (%)
Offer (%)
Day Change (%)
NGOMO 8/13/2020
4.00
1.20
0.00
NGOMO 9/3/2020
7.00
1.20
0.50
NGOMO 10/1/2020
7.50
1.20
0.00
NGOMO 11/03/2020
7.50
1.20
0.00
NGOMO 12/01/2020
7.00
1.20
0.00
NGOMO 02/02/2021
7.50
1.20
0.00
NGOMOB 0 03/02/21
7.50
1.20
0.00
NGOMOB 0 03/02/21
7.50
1.20
0.00
NGOMOB 0 05/11/21
7.50
1.20
0.00
Benchmark NTBills
Description
Bid (%)
Offer (%)
Day Change (%)
NIGTB 10/1/2020
3.00
0.10
0.00
NIGTB 11/12/2020
3.00
0.10
0.00
NIGTB 01/14/2021
4.00
0.10
0.00
NIGTB 02/11/2021
4.00
0.10
0.00
NIGTB 04/29/2021
4.00
0.10
0.00
NIGTB 05/13/21
4.00
0.10
0.00
NIGTB 06/10/21
4.00
0.10
0.00

Money Markets
The drought in the interbank market persevered today as the market opened c.N274.30Bn negative, while most banks remained at the SLF window (N384Bn) for the 3rd consecutive session. Consequently, OBB and OVN rates inched higher to close at 20.00% and 21.00% respectively.

We expect rates to remain stable in the double-digit range as there are no inflows expected for this week expected to boost market liquidity.

Money Market Rates

Current (%)
Previous (%)
Open Buy Back (OBB)
20.00
19.75
Overnight (O/N)
21.00
21.50

FX Market
The FX market remained sluggish today as pent-up demand remains unmet due to the scarce supply of the greenback. The IEFX window depreciated slightly by N0.25k, with traded volume ($11.96mio) dropping a whopping 88% D/D.

At the parallel market, the cash and transfer rates moved the most in recent times, depreciating by an average of 1.25k D/D to close the day at N460.50/$ and N463.50/$ respectively following a fresh wave of retail demand hitting the market.

FX Market
Current (N/$)
Previous ( N/$)
CBN Spot
381.00
381.00
CBN SMIS
380.69
380.69
I&E FX Window
386.75
386.50
Cash Market
460.50
458.50
Transfer Market
463.50
462.50

Eurobonds

The NGERIA Sovereigns weakened in a relatively quiet session, with yields expanding by an average of c.9bps across the benchmark curve but little volumes traded. In the SSA space, the Angola papers continue to weaken as we saw continued sell-off from profit-takers, especially on the 2025s maturity while its yield rose by c.20pts D/D to close at 13% levels.

On the flip side, some NGERIA Corps tickers saw some improved demand interests from local investors, most especially the FIDBAN 22s (-7bps). We also noted some weakness in the UBANL 22s (+56bps) and ETINL 2024s (+13bps), although we expect this weakness to be short-lived in light of an improved outlook for global oil prices.
Contact us:
Dealing Desk: 01-6311667 Email: research@zedcrestcapital.com
Disclaimer:
Whilst proper and reasonable care has been taken in the preparation and accuracy of the facts and figures presented in this report, no responsibility or liability is accepted by Zedcrest Capital or its employees for any error, omission, or opinion expressed herein. This report is not a piece of investment advice or a research recommendation and should not be regarded as such. The information provided herein is by no means intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision.

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