BrandArena: How Long Can Netflix Stay Ad-free?

Thursday, 2 May 2019

How Long Can Netflix Stay Ad-free?

For the last few years, the rise of Netflix led to a popular narrative that the future of TV will be ad-free. But advertising industry experts aren’t so sure that will be the case.

During a panel at IAB’s Digital Content NewFronts, executives from YouTube, JPMorgan Chase, media agency UM and MediaLink were asked about Netflix staying ad-free.

According to JP Morgan Chase CMO, Kristin Lemkau consumers would be open to ad-supported options if those options are transparent and consumers understand the value exchange.

“The consumer wants choice and they want something that creates value for them,” Lemkau said. “To the extent that you’ve got this subscription version versus the non-subscription version, consumers will take that tradeoff.”

She spoke about “the biggest thing to happen in TV last night,” referring to the airing of the latest “Game of Thrones” episode.

“It wouldn’t have worked with ads,” she said. “That piece of content, that type of storytelling couldn’t have happened with ads. The army of the dead are at the wall, and we’re still fighting among the houses.”

“Well, that’s not what their recruiters say,” said Tara Walpert Levy, YouTube and Google’s VP of Agency and Media Solutions. “They’re going to need growth. Eventually, they’re going to need more growth.”

Other streaming services offer both ad-supported and ad-free options. Hulu, for example, sells its ad-supported service for $5.99 per month. It costs $11.99 per month without ads. CBS All Access has similar offerings.

Joshua Lowcock of media agency UM said though there’s been a move toward getting rid of ads, it will go back the other way. Lowcock is global brand safety officer and U.S. chief digital and innovation officer at the agency, owned by Interpublic Group.

“We grew up in digital, believing we should inject ads everywhere at every moment we could,” Lowcock said. “And that’s why you’ve seen ad blockers and a move to ad-free environments. I think there will become a tipping point where ads come back. Netflix is ad-free now. I can’t imagine a world where Netflix will be ad-free forever. If you look at their content costs … that’s where addressable advertising and new ad formats will come in.”

Netflix did not respond to a request for comment on the panelists’ remarks.

The entrance of new streaming players like Apple and Disney were a point of discussion in Netflix’s shareholder letter recently. In it, the company claimed it didn’t anticipate “these new entrants will materially affect our growth because the transition from linear to on-demand entertainment is so massive and because of the differing nature of our content offerings.” Disney will pull its movies from Netflix this year to stream on its own new service. Netflix has a market cap of $162.6 billion, compared with Disney’s $250.4 billion.

Netflix stock fell about 1% earlier this month after reporting its first-quarter earnings. The company posted quarterly revenue that beat estimates but included light guidance for the following quarter. The company ended 2018 with 139 million paid subscribers, up 26 percent for the year. Competitor Hulu ended 2018 with more than 25 million subscribers.

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