Meta and Google delivered stronger-than-expected advertising performances in the first quarter of 2026, outperforming industry forecasts as Amazon held steady and YouTube continued to underdeliver, according to WARC Media’s latest Earnings Debrief.
The report, released on 1 May 2026, compares the advertising revenues of major technology platforms against WARC Media’s quarterly global ad spend forecasts and highlights a widening gap between dominant digital ecosystems and the struggling open web.
Benchmarking actual results against WARC Media’s projections, which are based on a proprietary neural network built from more than two million data points, Meta exceeded expectations by 2.3 percentage points, while Google Search outperformed by 5.4 percentage points. Amazon’s advertising business remained broadly in line with expectations, falling just 0.4 percentage points below forecast. YouTube, however, missed projections by 1.9 percentage points, while Google’s Display Network recorded a steeper-than-expected decline of 1.6 percentage points.
James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting at WARC, said: “With this earnings cycle closely tracking our forecasts, WARC's outlook for the year remains broadly unchanged for the major online platforms. The next phase of growth is likely to favour those that can turn AI from a fashionable noun into a measurable commercial advantage. As ever in advertising, rhetoric is plentiful; revenue is indelible.”
Meta’s AI-driven momentum
Meta emerged as one of the quarter’s strongest performers, generating advertising revenue of $55.0bn, above WARC’s projected $54.1bn.
The company’s performance suggests its investments in AI, targeting precision and automated advertising tools are translating into stronger commercial returns. Improved ranking systems and optimisation appear to be helping Meta boost engagement while also improving monetisation.
Chief Financial Officer Susan Li said ranking improvements on Instagram contributed to a 10 per cent increase in time spent watching Reels during the quarter, while Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg highlighted record engagement levels across Meta’s video ecosystem.
The results indicate Meta is strengthening its ability to attract attention, monetise user activity and command premium advertising rates.
Amazon strengthens retail media position
Amazon reported advertising services revenue of $17.2bn, broadly matching first-quarter forecasts.
While its growth was less dramatic than Meta or Google, Amazon continues to solidify its role as a powerful full-funnel advertising platform. The company’s advantage remains rooted in strong purchase intent, first-party shopper data and closed-loop attribution, allowing marketers to connect ad spending more directly to sales.
Its expanding streaming inventory and AI-assisted creative capabilities are also widening Amazon’s advertising appeal beyond traditional lower-funnel retail media.
Google Search remains dominant, but cracks appear elsewhere
Alphabet posted one of the quarter’s standout performances, with Google Search advertising revenue rising 19.1 per cent year-on-year to $60.4bn, significantly above forecast.
Chief Executive Sundar Pichai said AI is “illuminating every aspect of the business”, citing products such as AI Overviews and AI Mode as key drivers of stronger user engagement.
Despite Search’s resilience, Alphabet’s broader advertising business showed uneven results.
YouTube generated approximately $9.98bn in ad revenue, around $72m below forecast, suggesting the platform is still struggling to convert strong user engagement into equivalent monetisation. This marks the second consecutive quarter in which YouTube has fallen short of WARC’s expectations, although the shortfall was narrower than in the previous quarter.
Google’s Display Network also continued its decline, with revenues falling 3.9 per cent against an expected drop of 2.3 per cent, underlining the continued weakness of the broader open web advertising market.
Big Tech’s widening lead
Together, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet account for 58 per cent of global advertising investment outside China, making their performance a significant indicator of broader market direction.
The quarter’s results suggest advertisers are increasingly favouring platforms that combine large-scale audiences, first-party data and sophisticated automation tools.
Meta’s results show how AI can simultaneously improve engagement and monetisation, Amazon continues to evolve retail media into a broader advertising ecosystem, and Google Search remains highly resilient despite softer performances in YouTube and display.
Overall, the latest figures reinforce a growing industry reality: while dominant digital platforms continue to accelerate, much of the open web remains under pressure.
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