First Holdco Surges 62% Year to Date as Afrinvest Downgrades Stock to Sell

First Holdco Plc has emerged as the top-performing listed financial stock on the Nigerian Exchange this year, delivering a strong year-to-date return of over 60% to shareholders following a rapid re-rating on the local bourse last week.

However, the sharp rally has prompted Afrinvest Securities Limited to downgrade the stock to a sell recommendation, citing limited upside and growing valuation concerns. The investment firm estimates about 17% downside risk on the stock after its recent surge.

Afrinvest Securities Limited advised investors to take profit, as its equity analysts reduced First Holdco’s target price to N37.40, indicating that the stock is overvalued at its current market price of N44.95.

The non-operating holding company of First Bank Limited rose by approximately 43% week on week, largely driven by directors’ dealings. The significant investment activity boosted First Holdco’s market capitalisation to about N1.9 trillion, with year-to-date returns standing at 60.2%, according to data from Afrinvest Securities Limited.

GTCO ranked second among top-performing banking stocks, delivering a 54.6% year-to-date return. Equity analysts continue to highlight the financial services group as having the lowest keyman risk relative to its Tier-1 peers.

Zenith Bank Plc has also strengthened shareholder value, posting a 39.1% gain from the start of the year to date. Afrinvest Securities Limited placed the stock on a buy recommendation with a target price of N96.36, implying a 52.2% upside from its current market price of N63.30.

United Bank for Africa (UBA) has recorded a 17.6% year-to-date return for shareholders. The pan-African lender is similarly rated a buy by equity analysts at Afrinvest Securities Limited, with an estimated upside potential of 57.8% to a target price of N63.13.

The financial services group’s share price opened the week at N40, reflecting a 0.8% week-on-week gain on the Nigerian stock market.

In contrast, Access Holdings Plc has eroded investor value this year, recording a double-digit loss and significantly underperforming the Nigerian Exchange All Share Index. According to Afrinvest Securities Limited, the holding company has lost 14% of its opening value in 2025.

Despite the weak performance, equity analysts anticipate a potential re-rating, projecting a 137.1% upside to a target price of N48.61. Access Holdings Plc has yet to trade close to the N40 level, with its 52-week high on the Nigerian Exchange standing at N28.95.