BrandArena: AFEX Releases 2023 Crop Production Report, Forecasts Higher Commodity Prices in 2023-2024 Season

Thursday 16 November 2023

AFEX Releases 2023 Crop Production Report, Forecasts Higher Commodity Prices in 2023-2024 Season

AFEX, Africa's premier commodities player, unveiled its 2023 Crop Production report on November 16th, 2023, at a hybrid event held at its Abuja office. The crop production report, which provides insights on six key commodities (Maize, Paddy rice, Soybean, Sorghum, Cocoa, and Sesame), uses farmer surveys and transaction-level data measurement to track vital information on crop output, price performance, and market dynamics. The research will help stakeholders in the commodities market make data-driven trading decisions in the future season by improving their understanding of the current food system.

The report highlights a significant improvement in access to farmland for cultivation in critical areas, as well as an increase in the use of improved inputs, such as high-yielding seeds and fertilisers, compared to last season, which contributed to maize and paddy rice production being significantly higher this season. Input lending, on the other hand, remains a big concern today, with agriculture accounting for only 6.16% of bank financing in 2022.

On pricing, the report forecasts an increase in prices for all commodities based on a general decline in production coupled with increasing demand across processing and exports. Paddy Rice faced the most notable upswing in 2022/2023, partly due to increased flooding and the India rice ban that contributed to an increase of 34% and a baseline pricing of NGN353,000/mt, which is expected to rise to NGN400,000/mt and projected to stabilize at NGN480,000 to NGN500,000/mt by Q3 2023.

The report highlights food insecurity and food inflation as a major challenge for Nigeria, with a 5.7 million metric ton shortage across human consumption and agro-processing, and a historically high food inflation rate of 30.64%. Currently, Nigeria's Global Hunger Index score remains alarmingly high, ranking 109th out of 125 countries, indicating a severe food security crisis. The report notes that as food prices continue to surge, as witnessed in the 2023 season, food security challenges will continue to persist, further reducing the continent’s capacity to achieve Zero hunger by 2030.

Speaking at the launch event, President/CEO of AFEX Nigeria, Akinyinka Akintunde, stated, “This year, we nearly doubled our sample size from 20,677 to 39,091 to get an accurate reflection of the current state of Agriculture production, and we found that we must take extra care to prioritize improvement in agricultural productivity for these farmers, and this is hinged on investing in the sector, and solving for infrastructure, logistics, and technology gaps. This transformation will substantially enhance food self-sufficiency and increase our ability to meet the nutritional and food security needs of a growing population while also bolstering the economy through foreign exchange earnings.”

A recurring limitation for agriculture on the continent is a shortage of reliable data, which affects the availability of transparent pricing and limits, on the one hand, participation from the side of capital market operators and largely financial market players and on the other hand, farmers' ability to negotiate equitable contracts for themselves. This report attempts to build that gap by building a reliable data bank to promote market education and facilitate accurate trading decisions. 

The report is now available for download on

1 comment:

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