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Wednesday, 4 September 2019

Nigeria's GDP Grew By 1.94% YoY In Real Terms In Q2 2019 - NBS

Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.94% (year-on-year) in real terms in the second quarter of 2019. Compared to the second quarter of 2018, which recorded a growth of 1.50%, the growth observed in Q2 2019 indicates an increase of 0.44% points. When compared to 2.10% (revised from 2.01% due to oil output revisions) recorded in the first quarter of 2019 however, the Q2 2019 real growth rate indicates a decline of -0.16% points.

During the quarter, aggregate GDP stood at   N34,944,151.61 million in nominal terms, an increase of 13.83% over the performance in the second quarter of 2018 and 9.8% over the preceding quarter. The performance observed in Q2 2019 follows an equally  strong first quarter performance, and was likely aided by stability in oil output as well as the successful political transition. Overall, a total of 15 activities grew faster  in Q2 2019 relative to last year, while 13 activities had higher growth rates relative to the preceding quarter. On a half year basis, real growth in the first half of 2019 stood at 2.02%, higher than in 2018 which was 1.69%. Quarter on quarter, real GDP increased by 2.85% compared to  a decline of -13.69%  in the preceding period. For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors. (Figure 1)

The Oil Sector

Q2 2019, Nigeria recorded average daily oil production of 1.98million barrels per day (mbpd), or 7.6% higher than the daily average production of 1.84mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2018 but slightly less than output recorded in Q1 2019 (1.99mbpd-revised from 1.96 mbpd).

The oil sector posted a real growth rate of 5.15%  (year-on-year) in Q2 2019, representing a 9.10% points increase relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018. It also indicates  an increase of 6.61% points when compared to Q1  2019(revised). Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of -1.55% in Q2 2019.

The sector contributed 8.82% to total real GDP in Q2 2019, up from levels recorded in the corresponding period of 2018 but down compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 8.55% and 9.22% respectively.

The Non-Oil Sector 

The non-oil sector grew by 1.64% in real terms during the reference quarter.  This was -0.40% points lower than recorded in the same quarter of 2018, and -0.83% point lower than the first quarter of 2019. During the quarter, the sector was driven mainly by Information and communication, Mining and Quarrying, Agriculture, Transportation and Storage, as well as Other Services. In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 91.18% to the nationĂ¢€™s GDP, lower than the share recorded in the second quarter of 2018 (91.45%) but higher than the first quarter of 2019 (90.78%).

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