Africa holds an estimated $29.5 trillion in mine-site mineral value around 20 per cent of global mineral wealth, yet captures only a small share of the economic returns tied to this vast endowment, according to a new study released by the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC).
Of the total, $8.6 trillion remains undeveloped, underlining the continent’s under-explored status. Fragmented geological data, uneven survey coverage, and limited transparency continue to heighten risk perceptions and deter investment, the report says. It argues that improving the availability and quality of geological data is a critical first step in de-risking projects and unlocking exploration capital.
However, the study stresses that mine-site valuations significantly understate Africa’s true potential. The real value emerges further along the chain when minerals are processed into steel, aluminum, fertilisers, batteries and alloys. When measured at the point of industrial use, Africa’s mineral endowment expands dramatically, revealing substantial untapped economic value.
Launched at Mining Indaba in Cape Town, the Compendium of Africa’s Strategic Minerals reframes the sector through an African development lens. It places industrialisation, infrastructure and long-term regional demand at the centre of mineral strategy.
“Today, AFC is proud to launch the Compendium of Africa’s Strategic Minerals, an initiative to reframe the sector through an African lens and convert endowment into execution pathways for our collective prosperity,” said Samaila Zubairu, President & CEO of AFC. “The Compendium maps full value chains and links reserves and production to processing capacity, power and transport infrastructure, and regional industrial corridors—improving data transparency to de-risk exploration, lower the cost of capital, and guide smarter investment into mining and the enabling infrastructure needed for beneficiation and integrated regional value chains.”
Anchoring Mineral Development in African Demand
The report finds that mineral production, enabling infrastructure and end-user demand rarely align geographically or strategically at scale. It calls for stronger regional planning rooted in Africa’s long-term demand fundamentals.
The steel value chain illustrates this disconnect. Africa boasts world-class reserves of ferro-alloys such as manganese, chromium and nickel, while iron ore supply is entering a new growth phase. Yet these supply chains remain heavily exposed to Asian steel cycles rather than being anchored to Africa’s own development needs.
That exposure is proving costly. The slowdown in Asian steel demand — linked to China’s property downturn and weaker construction activity — has rippled through African mineral markets. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, cobalt production quotas have been imposed to manage oversupply and collapsing prices. In South Africa, primary steelmaking capacity has shut down amid weak domestic demand, high operating costs and fragmented offtake agreements. In Gabon, major manganese operations have periodically suspended production in response to softer alloy demand from Asia.
These developments come even as Africa continues to expand transport networks, power systems, housing and industrial capacity — all of which require these materials. The issue, the report argues, is not insufficient demand, but a failure to align mineral production, processing capacity and infrastructure investment with Africa’s long-term material requirements.
Infrastructure as the Strategic Link
The Compendium positions infrastructure at the heart of Africa’s mineral strategy — not merely as a supporting factor, but as the system connecting raw materials, processing capacity and end-user markets. Power reliability and cost, transport connectivity and access to industrial land ultimately determine whether local beneficiation is commercially viable.
To identify realistic pathways for regional value chains, the report maps mineral deposits and producing assets alongside railways, ports, power generation hubs and transmission networks. It calls for targeted investment in shared rail corridors and cross-border power transmission, particularly in mineral-rich regions where coordinated infrastructure could unlock scale, reduce delivered costs and underpin regional industrial platforms.
Infrastructure is also central to Africa’s competitiveness in the era of green industrialisation. Clean power, efficient logistics and integrated corridors such as Lobito can lower carbon intensity and improve access to markets increasingly demanding low-carbon, traceable supply chains.
African Minerals in a Fragmenting Global Economy
The study situates Africa’s mineral strategy within a rapidly evolving geo-economic landscape shaped by trade tensions, export controls, and industrial policy shifts aimed at reducing supply concentration risk. These trends are elevating the strategic importance of Africa’s mineral wealth but only where the continent can provide reliable, value-adding alternatives.
Rather than remaining a marginal supplier of raw materials, the report advocates selective integration into strategically exposed segments of global supply chains, particularly for minerals with highly concentrated processing markets. These include manganese, rare earths, graphite, uranium, and critical alloying inputs used in defence, aerospace and clean energy technologies.
Momentum is already building. Angola is developing one of the world’s largest and highest-grade rare earth deposits for magnet metals. Mozambique has emerged as a key feedstock hub for graphite and anode materials. Battery-grade manganese sulphate projects are advancing across Southern Africa, while uranium production resumed in Namibia and Malawi over 2024–25.
The Compendium ultimately argues that Africa’s mineral advantage will not be realised at the pithead alone. Instead, it depends on aligning geology with industry, infrastructure and domestic demand, transforming resource endowment into long-term industrial growth.
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