Apple is poised to outperform Samsung in global smartphone shipments in 2025, ending a 14-year run in which the South Korean company has dominated the market, according to new data from Counterpoint Research. The firm forecasts Apple will ship around 243 million iPhones this year, edging ahead of Samsung’s estimated 235 million units. That would give Apple a 19.4% share of the global market, compared with Samsung’s 18.7%.
Although shipment figures refer to devices distributed to retailers rather than direct consumer sales, they are widely viewed as a reliable gauge of underlying demand and market momentum.
Apple’s resurgence is being fuelled by the strong performance of the iPhone 17 range, released in September, which enjoyed what Counterpoint described as a “bumper” festive trading period. In the US, sales in the first four weeks after launch were 12% higher than those of the iPhone 16 series (excluding the 16e). In China, one of Apple’s most strategically important markets, sales climbed 18% year-on-year over the equivalent period.
Yang Wang, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint, said “Beyond the strong reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver is the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who bought smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase.”
Samsung is expected to contend with increasing pressure in the low- to mid-tier market from fast-growing Chinese rivals, a trend that could complicate its efforts to regain the global lead.
Counterpoint predicts Apple will retain the top position through 2029, supported by several structural advantages. These include the 358 million second-hand iPhones sold between 2023 and mid-2025—which form a substantial upgrade base—reduced tariff concerns following the US-China trade truce, and improving sentiment in emerging markets aided by a weaker US dollar.
“With these tailwinds, Apple is well-positioned to surpass Samsung in annual shipments in 2025,” Wang added.
Looking ahead, Apple’s product strategy is expected to broaden its reach further. The company is preparing to introduce an entry-level iPhone 17e in 2026, a foldable iPhone, a significant design overhaul in 2027, enhanced Siri capabilities and a wider range of devices across multiple price points.
Counterpoint says this roadmap will help Apple appeal to aspirational consumers in fast-growing markets and consolidate its strength in the lower premium tier, which is forecast to expand more quickly than the smartphone market overall. “Given the growing preference for iOS, device compatibility, and a substantial installed base due for renewal, Apple is positioned to retain leadership through the end of the decade,” the report concludes.
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