Will Nigeria follow Kenya in regulating ride-hailing fares as surge pricing bites drivers and commuters?

The Kenyan government’s plan to rein in surge pricing by ride-hailing platforms has sparked a broader question for Nigeria: will authorities step in to regulate fares as economic pressures mount on both drivers and passengers?

In Kenya, regulators are preparing a new pricing framework that could reshape how operators such as Uber Technologies, Inc. and Bolt determine fares. The proposal includes setting base rates, as well as per kilometre and per minute charges, in a move aimed at curbing unpredictable price spikes and improving income stability for drivers.

For years, ride-hailing platforms have relied on dynamic pricing models, where fares rise sharply during periods of high demand. While this system is designed to incentivise more drivers to come online, it has increasingly drawn criticism. Passengers face fluctuating costs, while drivers argue that aggressive price competition and platform commissions have eroded their earnings.

Kenya’s intervention reflects a growing regulatory trend across emerging markets, where governments are seeking to strike a balance between innovation and fairness in the digital economy. For drivers, standardised pricing could offer more predictable income amid rising operational costs. For passengers, it could mean fewer fare shocks during peak hours—though potentially at the cost of reduced vehicle availability.

The situation in Nigeria presents a strikingly similar, if not more urgent, case.

Drivers operating on platforms such as Uber Technologies, Inc. and Bolt in Benin City, Edo State, have announced a seven-day strike beginning March 26, 2026, under the umbrella of the Amalgamated Union of App-Based Transporters of Nigeria.

The industrial action follows what drivers describe as unsustainable working conditions, driven by stagnant fares and sharply rising costs. Negotiations with major operators, including inDrive, have reportedly failed to produce meaningful adjustments.

“As responsible individuals with families and obligations, e-hailing drivers cannot continue to operate under conditions that are no longer sustainable,” the statement reads.

At the heart of the dispute is the surge in fuel prices, Nigeria’s most significant cost driver for transport operators. Following global supply disruptions linked to the ongoing U.S.-Iran war, petrol prices in Nigeria have climbed steeply—from around ₦850 per litre to an average of ₦1,200, an increase of nearly 50%.

Despite this, fare structures remain largely dictated by platform algorithms, leaving drivers with shrinking margins and little control over pricing.

The Edo State chapter of AUATON has directed a total shutdown of app-based services from March 26 to April 1, warning that compliance will be enforced. The union says the strike is aimed at compelling operators to recognise drivers as key stakeholders and to engage in meaningful fare reviews.

“The leadership and entire membership of AUATON sincerely regret any inconvenience this action may cause the public. However, this decision is taken in the collective interest and survival of our members, who also have families and dependents,” the union said.

The standoff highlights a growing imbalance within Nigeria’s ride-hailing ecosystem. While platforms continue to prioritise competitive pricing and market share, drivers are grappling with inflation, fuel costs, vehicle maintenance and commission charges. At the same time, passengers are not insulated from the strain, often facing surge pricing during peak periods despite the broader economic downturn.

This raises a critical question: should Nigerian regulators step in, as Kenya is attempting, to impose a more structured pricing model?

Advocates of regulation argue that a controlled framework could stabilise the sector, ensuring fairer earnings for drivers while protecting consumers from erratic fare increases. Critics, however, warn that limiting pricing flexibility could reduce driver availability, discourage platform investment and ultimately weaken service efficiency.

For now, Nigeria’s ride-hailing sector remains at a crossroads. With tensions escalating and economic realities tightening, the pressure is mounting on both operators and policymakers to find a sustainable path forward—one that balances profitability with fairness for the millions who rely on these platforms daily.