Marketer confidence plunges as economic instability reshapes global consumer behaviour

Marketer confidence has fallen sharply, with optimism dropping 11 points as economic uncertainty continues to reshape how consumers spend and what they prioritise. The shift is outlined in WARC’s Marketer’s Toolkit 2026, which identifies five major trends expected to redefine global marketing strategies in the coming year.

Now in its 15th edition, the report blends WARC’s proprietary GEISTE framework with insights from more than 1,000 senior marketers, in-depth interviews with global brand leaders, and expert analysis across government, economy, industry, society, technology, and the environment.

Aditya Kishore, Insight Director at WARC, says “Going into 2026, the only certainty is that there will be uncertainty. Unpredictable tariffs, geopolitical threats, and economic instability are impacting consumer spending, lifestyles, and ambitions. Our survey found marketer optimism is down 11 points from last year, with 54% of marketers saying they expect things to be better next year, versus 65% surveyed in 2024. But understanding consumer shifts and how to adapt quickly to cater to them could create new opportunities for brands in 2026.

“Our Marketer’s Toolkit 2026 is a map for making sense of a world that’s rapidly and constantly changing. It’s designed to bring clarity in chaos and help marketers understand what’s really happening to people, brands, and technology and what to do about it before falling behind.”

The vanishing middle

Seventy-three per cent of marketers agree the concept of the “middle class” is losing meaning as income pressures, rising living costs, and unstable employment push consumers towards either premium or low-cost markets. Once the engine of category growth, the middle is rapidly eroding. Marketers are urged to help customers manage “affordability tension”, build stronger emotional connections, and tailor strategies to specific demographic cohorts.

The creator gamble

Influencer spending is set to rise again, with 61% of marketers planning to increase creator investment in 2026. Yet concerns around ROI persist: CreativeX analysis indicates 45% of creator ad spend on Meta is wasted through weak creative, while Kantar finds only 27% of creator content effectively links back to the sponsoring brand. As reach, authenticity and brand control collide, marketers are advised to align internally on creator KPIs, strengthen media planning, and share audience insights with creators to improve outcomes.

The great escape

With 78% of marketers prioritising digital channels and 74% investing in in-person events, brands are increasingly turning to escapist experiences to reach consumers seeking relief from global “polycrisis” fatigue. Research shows campaigns rooted in unity, stability or positivity perform better during high-anxiety periods. McCann Worldgroup predicts the “Escape Economy” could reach $13.9trn by 2028. WARC advises brands to build meaningful experiences, nurture digital and real-world communities, and create moments that encourage emotional connection.

Zero-click customer journeys

AI is reshaping how people search and shop, with only 11% of marketers saying they are “not particularly worried” about its impact. Almost a quarter are already shifting from SEO to GEO - generative engine optimisation. Despite rapid change, WARC stresses that AI-powered journeys will still rely on clear brand cues. Marketers are encouraged to run measurable AI tests, balance experimentation with proven tactics, and draw on historical lessons from previous tech disruptions.

The reset of consumer milestones

Traditional segmentation models are losing relevance, with nearly six in ten marketers saying age, income, and social class no longer provide effective customer insight. Growing numbers of childless households and changing gender roles are transforming the life stages that once defined spending behaviour. WARC advises brands to question old assumptions, build flexibility into brand platforms, and investigate emerging category entry points through focused research.

A complimentary sample of The Marketer’s Toolkit 2026 is available to read now, alongside a six-episode podcast series running from 13 November to early December.