Wednesday, 20 January 2016

IMF Global Forecast 'Largely Nonsensical' - Global Economist

In a quarterly update to its World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Tuesday said global economy will expand 3.4 percent this year, down from a projected 3.6 percent in October.

The Washington-based body put growth at 3.4% this year and 3.6% in 2017. It said central banks should continue to boost growth and that finance ministries should bolster investment spending where possible.

IMF researchers left their estimate for China’s growth this year unchanged at 6.3 percent.

However, Mr. Paul Donovan, Global Economist and Managing Director of UBS Investment Bank while speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance, said the IMF is just going for headlines with its global economic forecast. In his opinion, the report is 'largely nonsensical'.

Donovan pointed out that "the forecast by IMF are about six to twelve months above the ties. I don't think any economist on the planet believes that economic forecast is accurate enough to give you a .5 range on GDP".

"China growth rate must come down from where it is today", said. "That is is too high today".

He stressed China is not aiming at shrinking the manufacturing sector but to expand the consumer sector. He cited Indonesia as an example of the nation China need to grow their standard of living to.

Paul Donovan is responsible for formulating and presenting the UBS Investment Research global economic view, drawing on the bank’s world-wide resources. Paul co-authors the Global Economic Perspectives publication with other members of the Global Economics team and writes Global Economic Specials that focus on key topics of interests to investors. 

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